Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk,uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting

Under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization, there are a number of international initiatives to promote the development and use of so-called ensemble prediction systems (EPS) for flood forecasting. The campaign to apply these meteorological techniques to flood forecasting raises important questions about how the probabilistic information these systems provide can be used for what in operational terms is typically a binary decision of whether or not to issue a flood warning. To explore these issues, we report on the results of a series of focus group discussions conducted with operational flood forecasters from across Europe on behalf of the European Flood Alert System. Working in small groups to simulate operational conditions, forecasters engaged in a series of carefully designed forecasting exercises using various different combinations of actual data from real events. Focus group data was supplemented by a follow-up questionnaire survey exploring how flood forecasters understand risk, uncertainty, and error. Results suggest that flood forecasters may not instinctively use ensemble predictions in the way that promoters of EPS perhaps think they should. The paper concludes by exploring the implications of these divergent ‘epistemic cultures’ for efforts to apply ensemble prediction techniques developed in the context of weather forecasting to the rather different one of flood forecasting.     

Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk, uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting

Under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization, there are a number of international initiatives to promote the development and use of so-called ensemble prediction systems (EPS) for flood forecasting. The campaign to apply these meteorological techniques to flood forecasting raises important questions about how the probabilistic information these systems provide can be used for what in operational terms is typically a binary decision of whether or not to issue a flood warning. To explore these issues, we report on the results of a series of focus group discussions conducted with operational flood forecasters from across Europe on behalf of the European Flood Alert System. Working in small groups to simulate operational conditions, forecasters engaged in a series of carefully designed forecasting exercises using various different combinations of actual data from real events. Focus group data was supplemented by a follow-up questionnaire survey exploring how flood forecasters understand risk, uncertainty, and error. Results suggest that flood forecasters may not instinctively use ensemble predictions in the way that promoters of EPS perhaps think they should. The paper concludes by exploring the implications of these divergent ‘epistemic cultures’ for efforts to apply ensemble prediction techniques developed in the context of weather forecasting to the rather different one of flood forecasting.     

Building Trust in Natural Resource Management Within Local Communities: A Case Study of the Midewin National Tallgrass Prairie

Communities neighboring federally protected natural areas regularly weigh the costs and benefits of the administering agency’s programs and policies. While most agencies integrate public opinion into decision making, efforts to standardize and formalize public involvement have left many local communities feeling marginalized, spurring acrimony and opposition. A significant body of research has examined barriers to effective public participation as well as strategies for relationship building in planning processes; many of which point to trust as a key factor. Trust is especially tenuous in local communities. This paper explores perceptions of trust, expectations for management, as well as constraints to building trust. In-depth interviews were conducted with 21 community members and USDA Forest Service personnel at the Midewin National Tallgrass Prairie in northeastern Illinois. The interviews revealed that trust is perceived as important to effective management. Distinct expectations for management outcomes and processes emerged, including the values, knowledge, and capacity demonstrated in management decisions and actions and opportunities provided for communication, collaboration, and cooperation within the agency-community relationship. The case study identified several constraints to building trust, including competing values, knowledge gaps, limited community engagement, and staff turnover.     

MERCURY IN WATER AND SEDIMENT OF STEAMBOAT CREEK,NEVADA: IMPLICATIONS FOR STREAM RESTORATION1

ABSTRACT: The objective of this study was to characterize the sources, concentrations, and distribution of total and methylmer‐cury in water, and channel and bank sediments of Steamboat Creek, Nevada. This information was needed to begin to assess the potential impacts of stream restoration on mercury pollution in this tributary to the Truckee River. The Truckee River flows into Pyramid Lake, a terminal water body home to one endangered and one threatened fish species, where stable pollutants will accumulate over time. Mercury in Steamboat Creek was originally derived from its headwaters, Washoe Lake, where several gold and silver mills that utilized mercury were located. In the 100 plus years since ore processing occurred, mercury‐laden alluvium has been deposited in the stream channel and on streambanks where it is available for remobilization. Total mercury concentrations measured in unfiltered water from the creek ranged from 82 to 419 ng/L, with greater than 90 percent of this mercury being particle‐bound (> 0.45 (m). Mercury in sediments ranged from 0.26 to 10.2 μg/g. Methylmercury concentrations in sediments of Steamboat Creek were highest in wetlands, lower in the stream channel, and still lower in streambank settings. Methylmercury concentrations in water were 0.63 to 1.4 ng/L. A streambank restoration plan, which includes alterations to channel geometry and wetland creation or expansion, has been initiated for the creek. Data developed indicate that streambank stabilization could reduce the mercury loading to the Creek and that wetland construction could exacerbate methylmercury production.